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Miami Open 2024 Men's Final Preview and Predictions

Le Stade Hard Rock à Miami

Will Jannik Sinner finally lift the trophy in Miami?

The 39th final of the Miami Open Masters 1000 tournament is on our doorstep. For the occasion, the second seed and 3rd best player in the world, Jannik Sinner, will face against the 11th seed, the Bulgarian Grigor Dimitrov. The Italian leads the head-to-head 2-1, the last match played between the two was won by Sinner in 3 sets during the quarterfinals of the China Open in Beijing last October. Sinner also beat Dimitrov last year in the 3rd round of the Miami Open.

Jannik Sinner is no stranger to playing during the last Sunday of the Miami Open, he will be playing in his 3rd final in the last 4 years in Miami. He will try to lift the trophy for the first time after failed attempts in 2021 and 2023. Sinner talked about his first final in Miami during his post-match interview following his dismantling of Daniil Medvedev in the semifinals :

The first time I came here I made final, I couldn't sleep the night [before] [...] Now I'm a different player, different person. I will handle it hopefully a little bit better again.

For this occasion, he will play Grigor Dimitrov who was almost eliminated in the 1st round after trailing Alejandro Tabilo by a set and 2-5 in the second set tiebreak, By reaching the final, Dimitrov will be back in the top-10 in the rankings for the first time in 6 years. Dimitrov could also become only the 10th player to win a Masters 1000 title by beating 3 top-5 players after wins against Carlos Alcaraz (2) and Alexander Zverev (5).

A long absence from the top-10 for Dimitrov

Once Dimitrov is back in the top-10 when the new rankings are released tomorrow, 260 weeks (November 5th, 2018 - April 1st, 2024) will have passed since he last was there. This absurdly long sequence will become the 3rd longest one in the sport's history. The longest sequence is owned by the Frenchman Gilles Simon who spent a total of 308 weeks outside the top-10 after first reaching it. By making his way back in the top-10, this also means that the absence of a 1-hand backhand player in the top-10 will have been short lived. The Bulgarian was pleased with his performances this week :

For me what's better, above all that, is I have been able to put those matches back to back [...] The discipline, the hard work, all the dedication, the adjustment to very different players throughout that time, you need to be able to do that on a constant basis.

Jannik Sinner vs. Grigor Dimitrov : Analysis and Predictions

Jannik Sinner throws up during a tennis match in Beijing
Jannik Sinner threw up during his last match against Grigor Dimitrov, during the quarterfinals of the China Open in 2023.

Dimitrov has never beat Sinner on hardcourts, his lone win came on clay during the Rome Masters 1000 tournament 4 years ago, when Sinner was still making his debut on the tour. However, he was able to snatch a set in their last match in Beijing last year, with the level he's shown this week, he could do it again. He had to beat 3 top-10 players to reach the final and is playing the best tennis of his career. He's serving and returning well and has shown composure in the important moments. His serve is firing and he could force a tiebreak, where anything can happen.

Jannik Sinner had an easier draw after the surprise elimination of multiple seeds in his part of the draw : Andrey Rublev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Tommy Paul and Frances Tiafoe all fell before reaching Jannik Sinner. Nevertheless, Sinner was ready for his semifinal match where he completely dominated a flat Daniil Medvedev 6-1, 6-2. Even if Medvedev did not play his best tennis that day, Sinner played a near-perfect match.

Statistics from Jannik Sinner's semifinal match
Jannik Sinner got the best performance index of the season during his semifinal match against Daniil Medvedev

With a record of 21-1 this season and his impressive performance in the semifinals, it's hard to bet against Sinner. Dimitrov is playing the best tennis of his career and could cause some issues to the Italian, but in the end Jannik Sinner should lift the Miami Open trophy for the first time in his career, securing the 2nd rank in the world in the process.


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